I am facing a difficult decision today, whether to buy dragonhide or not and it vexes me. I am vexed.
On the surface it should be an easy decision, the prices are primed to be able to make a predictive offer of min+5 at 1715 just in time for them to rise right back up to 1800-1830 for green dragonhide and get some early for when they jump up but people are hunting dragons en-mass for bones, what if they continue to drop?
This is the problem, right now people are hunting the dragons but what is happening to their hides, are they simply dropping them on the floor as worthless junk in order to get bones or are they still putting them in the bank?
Will they go to 1715 tomorrow then go back up as people buy or will there be a glut in the market? If there is, will they continue to slide down past 1650?
http://services.runescape.com/m=itemdb_rs/Green_dragonhide/viewitem.ws?obj=1753&scale=2
On the surface 3 things could happen:
Nothing at all and the price continues to flit as it has done for months bewteen two points.
Dragonhides fall as everyone panic sells in order to get bones. Even if this happens there will be a scarcity on them, as they are a primary resource in crafting, alching and freeplay rangers.
Dragonhides go to their usual price of 1750 tomorrow they shoot back up again.
Either way, having done the maths and seeing as I would only risk about 5M I will give it a shot...to buy dragonhides and have basically cornered the market for 1715 is too good an opportunity to miss! lol
On the plus side, whatever happens maple seeds are excellent to buy at mid+120...they should rise well tomorrow or the day after in their perpetual cycle :)
Saturday, 5 December 2009
Making Easy Money In Runescape
The biggest problem people have with trading is first deciding how much they need, you can start with any amount usually but for beginners I would tend to say about 1M which can probably be claimed in a short while. This is in no way a definate sum, but just makes it easier to think about.
Even without the lines it just be fairly easy to see what is going on here, since the guide price has not dropped to the absolute minimum in 3 months it is not recomendded getting into a bidding war for 5gp as you will be queued for weeks, simply buy at mid price and then they should sell slowly off for the next few days as people are naturally impatient, even for the most common stuff and will place in an offer for maximum since it is only an extra 1k for 1000
This way does work and there is no risk unless Jagex again decide to drop the price caps and it falls further yet I doubt that will happen, they have the opportunity to go to 5gp yet they don't.
Much better instead is to go for something like adamant plates, legs, scimitars, kites and helms, there are a fair few up and coming pures now that PvP has made a come back and you will always be able to supply these with gear, lets just look at adamant chains:
The reason why chains are so much better here is because they are 3x as cheap and have 5x the movement of adamant platebodies in the GE. We could of course use the plates, but we would not nearly be as effective though the more people who do this, they slower chains will get as they find their equilibrium and something else will take its place as being the best.
So, we are limited to roughly 100 per four hours if we buy ourselves (more to follow to get around this later...someone remind me please lol), which means about 300/400 per 12/16 hours which is a nights trading while in bed and at school the following day depending on what price you actually pick them up for.
Lets say our sell price is 2800 for arguments sake, obviously it may be higher than that depending on the demand or lower but round numbers are always easier (more on this later)
Now, we have bought 400 adamant chains for 2700, and selling for 2800
You are crying to yourself that this is only 40k, but this is 40k you didn't have a day ago and it is 4% profit which is about as good as it gets with solo trading, you obviously do not have the buying power to manipulate prices on your own, and if you join such a clan there is next to no hope of you getting stock at the lowest price in order to make it worthwhile.
All you do now with your 1.04M is reinvest it back into something else or the chains again, predicting the price they will likely fall to and being there first to buy, this becomes 1.09M, 1.15M and it keeps rising in a geometric scale.
If you continue for a week or two you will have doubled your money with next to no effort and can concentrate on leveling your woodcutting skills :)
Once you have enough money such as 2.3M you can start on green d'hide chaps which I believe have a very high buying limit of 10,000 meaning this is almost the very pinnacle of freeplay trading:
Once you have done this a few times, then you can take those profits and move it onto jewelry, gems, scimitars...just because you may be freeplay it doesn't mean you cannot play with the big boys :D
Even without the lines it just be fairly easy to see what is going on here, since the guide price has not dropped to the absolute minimum in 3 months it is not recomendded getting into a bidding war for 5gp as you will be queued for weeks, simply buy at mid price and then they should sell slowly off for the next few days as people are naturally impatient, even for the most common stuff and will place in an offer for maximum since it is only an extra 1k for 1000
This way does work and there is no risk unless Jagex again decide to drop the price caps and it falls further yet I doubt that will happen, they have the opportunity to go to 5gp yet they don't.
Much better instead is to go for something like adamant plates, legs, scimitars, kites and helms, there are a fair few up and coming pures now that PvP has made a come back and you will always be able to supply these with gear, lets just look at adamant chains:
The reason why chains are so much better here is because they are 3x as cheap and have 5x the movement of adamant platebodies in the GE. We could of course use the plates, but we would not nearly be as effective though the more people who do this, they slower chains will get as they find their equilibrium and something else will take its place as being the best.
So, we are limited to roughly 100 per four hours if we buy ourselves (more to follow to get around this later...someone remind me please lol), which means about 300/400 per 12/16 hours which is a nights trading while in bed and at school the following day depending on what price you actually pick them up for.
Lets say our sell price is 2800 for arguments sake, obviously it may be higher than that depending on the demand or lower but round numbers are always easier (more on this later)
Now, we have bought 400 adamant chains for 2700, and selling for 2800
You are crying to yourself that this is only 40k, but this is 40k you didn't have a day ago and it is 4% profit which is about as good as it gets with solo trading, you obviously do not have the buying power to manipulate prices on your own, and if you join such a clan there is next to no hope of you getting stock at the lowest price in order to make it worthwhile.
All you do now with your 1.04M is reinvest it back into something else or the chains again, predicting the price they will likely fall to and being there first to buy, this becomes 1.09M, 1.15M and it keeps rising in a geometric scale.
If you continue for a week or two you will have doubled your money with next to no effort and can concentrate on leveling your woodcutting skills :)
Once you have enough money such as 2.3M you can start on green d'hide chaps which I believe have a very high buying limit of 10,000 meaning this is almost the very pinnacle of freeplay trading:
Once you have done this a few times, then you can take those profits and move it onto jewelry, gems, scimitars...just because you may be freeplay it doesn't mean you cannot play with the big boys :D
Friday, 4 December 2009
To slide or not to slide when swinging should be better?
Basically the whole idea of sliding as opposed to flipping or swinging (snigger) is that instead of simply doing one trade once at the top and bottom, the price will rise and fall only a few gold pieces each day over the course of the week.
What this means is if you solely rely on buying for minimum and selling at max you will have a problem while you wait ages for the conditions to be met...sliding is the alternative.[Insert random Numb3rs imagery here]
Imagine a nature rune starting at 200 gold and it rises 3 gp each day to 220 yet its max price is generally 10% over this...we can buy our nature rune for 203 (since we already know the most common buy price previously) and get them fairly fast and then simply sell at max-3 since because everyone now had to match your offer they have to offer more to buy...you simply sell it back to them.
So what you have is a system such as:
mid 200 buy 203 sell 220
mid 203 buy 206 sell 220
mid 206 buy 209 sell 220
mid 209 buy 212 sell 225
mid 212 buy 215 sell 223
mid 215 buy 218 sell 221
When the price starts to drop simply reverse it, buying at min and selling just under mid...this allows fantastic profits over time
Say you can buy 4x25k per day
Thats 100,000 x 17gp profit just on the first day for 1.7M profit!!
Continue that over the week and though it is likely you will get shorter odds it will start to tell you when it is going to reverse simply due to this mechanism.
Of course the higher the price goes over time the shorter your profits will be as a result due to that line that everyone carries in their head telling them the price of a rune...however if you time and price it well you can get around this quite easily...all you need is luck at choosing the exact price to buy and sell at...
Of course the nature rune is simply an example, it works well with lower priced items that flow up and down regularly rather than those that bounce everywhere like a constipated camel on vindaloo...if you have the spare cash and can identify good buy and sell prices for a certain product, try it, you will not be disappointed :)
Thursday, 3 December 2009
Explanation of flipping in Runescape
Basically flipping is quite possibly the easiest method of Grand Exchange trading there is, and the one that has been around the longest period of time in some form or another.
Simply put you buy a product such as feathers in the old day for 6gp, and quickly put up for sale at 7gp.
Contrary to popular believe this is not a bad form of reselling whereby youbring prices down or drive them up, all you do is maintain an equilibrium that has been settled upon over many months between supply and demand.
A couple of years ago I did it to great effect with fire runes, buying at 10gp at the afternoon GMT and selling at 11gp during the night, the reason this worked is because the vast majority of players did not have any or were just about to produce them. What happens in the case of that is that at the end of the night more will get put into the GE simply because it is needed which didn't exist earlier. However it happened, buying in one timeslot and selling at another is a great trick, not too many can stay on the computer 12 hours and there are too many people simply buying in one world and selling in another for it to work effectively.
Fire runes are good for something like this for a beginner, yet they will not bring in vast sums of money, simply buy for minimum price or middle and sell maximum.
Simply put you buy a product such as feathers in the old day for 6gp, and quickly put up for sale at 7gp.
Contrary to popular believe this is not a bad form of reselling whereby youbring prices down or drive them up, all you do is maintain an equilibrium that has been settled upon over many months between supply and demand.
A couple of years ago I did it to great effect with fire runes, buying at 10gp at the afternoon GMT and selling at 11gp during the night, the reason this worked is because the vast majority of players did not have any or were just about to produce them. What happens in the case of that is that at the end of the night more will get put into the GE simply because it is needed which didn't exist earlier. However it happened, buying in one timeslot and selling at another is a great trick, not too many can stay on the computer 12 hours and there are too many people simply buying in one world and selling in another for it to work effectively.
Fire runes are good for something like this for a beginner, yet they will not bring in vast sums of money, simply buy for minimum price or middle and sell maximum.
Wednesday, 2 December 2009
Reading the Grand Exchange Charts
Welcome to the first of many tutorials I will be writing, mainly...how to profit from the GE easily with the minimum of risk to your pile of cash :)
Basically, how this works is we look at charts mostly, we find stable items that flit up and down and yet don't spike or crash, all we do is buy at a price roughly 25-50% of bottom price and middle and then sell back at middle price, following the natural contours and always making money.
This has two effects, it ensures there is always stock being bought & sold and keeps things steady, it is when one of these crucial systems breaks down you have rapidly rising prices or crashing prices.
This is an example of a good item for our purposes of stable merchanting:
As you can see it has very common high and low points meaning it is possible simply to trade near to those and constantly make money, no matter how slow.
This is also an example of a good item for our purposes of stable merchanting at least before it started rising at the end of November, when it drops down to 5400 it will be good to buy again:
You will see two lines pointed out, the bottom green one is where you buy, and the top red one is where you sell...of course whether you do this is up to you entirely but it is simply meant to illustrate how this decision is reached by identifying the best prices, this also only shows the middle price, often for black chaps for instance the buy and sell price will go beyond this as people buy for minimum and maximum yet the majority trade around the median price. How you choose to price your items is up to you but you will always get more if you choose to cut profits ;)
Right now the price is soaring way out of control for no reason, this is indicative of a clan having gotten hold of it and buying them out, do not buy when this happens, otherwise you stand to simply lose your money. Simply move onto something else for the duration.
If something rises for no reason, such as an update to cause it be very careful...you are already too late to the party, and you will not get any until everyone dumps the whole lot and you will stagger around under the weight of your impending bankrupcy. A good technique however is to notice things rising and buying items that supply those, such as buying ranarr seeds or super restore potions if prayer potions rise.
The best types of items to buy are high volume and low priced goods, a whip may very well jump 25k in a day, but all you need are 25,000 iron knifes bought at minimum and then sold one coin piece higher to make the same effect, which far greater safety to your bank balance; trade low, trade many is the key to great wealth ;)
Other examples of good items are those that get burnt out often, such as duel rings...they are very cheap, supremely useful and you can get about 10k easily within 4 hours...the general price range to buy is 1600-1650 and to sell you should be looking at 1750-1800.
Tomorrow I will start my list on what will be good to buy and sell through the GE, based on quantity, quality and best of all profit margin but try this just as a starter, if you take a look around at adamant items such as the normal armours you will see some things hitting a floor price, when this happens start buying, the adamant platelegs would be a very good thing to place an order in for before they drop at 3600 :)
Try this just as an example, various adamant armours can be bought easily by freeplay as in the next day or two at 3600, don't miss out on your chance to buy as they will go up...they are great for those with little money as you can buy upto 600 per day and that will only cost you a 2.16M, but you stand to make about 35k per 100 traded when you sell at mid price a day or two later...then simply switch to a new item.
It does not sound like much, but I started with 30k once and now have 450M+
It all adds up :)
By the way, my ingame Runescape name is "Cookies_Spam" and my clanchat is always open for you to take a look in and sometimes we even discuss trading though we never advocate buying for maximum price, if you follow the simple rules that will be outlined here over the next few weeks you won't need to use manipulation clans :)
There is one other thing I wish to note, most of the time I will not be doing the same item as other people, it makes no sense for me to buy a maximum of 600 adamant plate bodies a day for 2.3M when I have 200x that money...I usually do higher value items such as onyx bolts (8k each), high level seeds (30-45k each) or various food items or jewelry. This is not to say sometimes we wont do the same items if they are good, I just wish to make it clear from the outset that I have nothing to gain in the game from you making money, except the knowledge that you are another I have helped :)
Our usual profit margin is generally 3-8% every day, it sounds like a tiny amount when you think you will only make 30k-50k from 1M investment, but change that into 100M over time and you will be regularly seeing an 8M+ return :)
An item I recently spotted dropped from 6200 to 5300, at which point we all fell upon it like a pack of rabid wolves as we had been watching it fall, it shot back up in price to 5900-6000 which is what we sold at...I personally made 18M from that and people had similar success, just on smaller scales lol
Anyways, there is no pressure, come to my clanchat, have a talk with me or one of my friends, get a hint, noodles, don't noodles...why be so concerned with what was and what will be? ;)
~Sparhawke
Basically, how this works is we look at charts mostly, we find stable items that flit up and down and yet don't spike or crash, all we do is buy at a price roughly 25-50% of bottom price and middle and then sell back at middle price, following the natural contours and always making money.
This has two effects, it ensures there is always stock being bought & sold and keeps things steady, it is when one of these crucial systems breaks down you have rapidly rising prices or crashing prices.
This is an example of a good item for our purposes of stable merchanting:
As you can see it has very common high and low points meaning it is possible simply to trade near to those and constantly make money, no matter how slow.
This is also an example of a good item for our purposes of stable merchanting at least before it started rising at the end of November, when it drops down to 5400 it will be good to buy again:
You will see two lines pointed out, the bottom green one is where you buy, and the top red one is where you sell...of course whether you do this is up to you entirely but it is simply meant to illustrate how this decision is reached by identifying the best prices, this also only shows the middle price, often for black chaps for instance the buy and sell price will go beyond this as people buy for minimum and maximum yet the majority trade around the median price. How you choose to price your items is up to you but you will always get more if you choose to cut profits ;)
Right now the price is soaring way out of control for no reason, this is indicative of a clan having gotten hold of it and buying them out, do not buy when this happens, otherwise you stand to simply lose your money. Simply move onto something else for the duration.
If something rises for no reason, such as an update to cause it be very careful...you are already too late to the party, and you will not get any until everyone dumps the whole lot and you will stagger around under the weight of your impending bankrupcy. A good technique however is to notice things rising and buying items that supply those, such as buying ranarr seeds or super restore potions if prayer potions rise.
The best types of items to buy are high volume and low priced goods, a whip may very well jump 25k in a day, but all you need are 25,000 iron knifes bought at minimum and then sold one coin piece higher to make the same effect, which far greater safety to your bank balance; trade low, trade many is the key to great wealth ;)
Other examples of good items are those that get burnt out often, such as duel rings...they are very cheap, supremely useful and you can get about 10k easily within 4 hours...the general price range to buy is 1600-1650 and to sell you should be looking at 1750-1800.
Tomorrow I will start my list on what will be good to buy and sell through the GE, based on quantity, quality and best of all profit margin but try this just as a starter, if you take a look around at adamant items such as the normal armours you will see some things hitting a floor price, when this happens start buying, the adamant platelegs would be a very good thing to place an order in for before they drop at 3600 :)
Try this just as an example, various adamant armours can be bought easily by freeplay as in the next day or two at 3600, don't miss out on your chance to buy as they will go up...they are great for those with little money as you can buy upto 600 per day and that will only cost you a 2.16M, but you stand to make about 35k per 100 traded when you sell at mid price a day or two later...then simply switch to a new item.
It does not sound like much, but I started with 30k once and now have 450M+
It all adds up :)
By the way, my ingame Runescape name is "Cookies_Spam" and my clanchat is always open for you to take a look in and sometimes we even discuss trading though we never advocate buying for maximum price, if you follow the simple rules that will be outlined here over the next few weeks you won't need to use manipulation clans :)
There is one other thing I wish to note, most of the time I will not be doing the same item as other people, it makes no sense for me to buy a maximum of 600 adamant plate bodies a day for 2.3M when I have 200x that money...I usually do higher value items such as onyx bolts (8k each), high level seeds (30-45k each) or various food items or jewelry. This is not to say sometimes we wont do the same items if they are good, I just wish to make it clear from the outset that I have nothing to gain in the game from you making money, except the knowledge that you are another I have helped :)
Our usual profit margin is generally 3-8% every day, it sounds like a tiny amount when you think you will only make 30k-50k from 1M investment, but change that into 100M over time and you will be regularly seeing an 8M+ return :)
An item I recently spotted dropped from 6200 to 5300, at which point we all fell upon it like a pack of rabid wolves as we had been watching it fall, it shot back up in price to 5900-6000 which is what we sold at...I personally made 18M from that and people had similar success, just on smaller scales lol
Anyways, there is no pressure, come to my clanchat, have a talk with me or one of my friends, get a hint, noodles, don't noodles...why be so concerned with what was and what will be? ;)
~Sparhawke
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